Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather     

Paul Joe  Cliff Crozier  Norman Donaldson  Dave Etkin  Erik Brun  Steve Clodman 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):249-302

Abstract

Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings.  相似文献   

The Euro-Atlantic Circulation Response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation Cycle of Tropical Heating: Coupled GCM Intervention Experiments     

Priyanka Yadav  David M. Straus  Erik T. Swenson 《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):161-181

Abstract

Intervention experiments using the Coupled Forecast System model, version 2 (CFSv2), have been performed in which various Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) evolutions were added to the model’s internally generated heating: Slow Repeated Cycles, Slow Single Cycle, Fast Repeated Cycles, and Fast Single Cycle. In each experiment, one of these specified MJO evolutions of tropical diabatic heating was added in multiple ensemble reforecasts of boreal winter (1 November to 31 March for 31 winters: 1980–2010). Since in each experiment, multiple re-forecasts were made with the identical heating evolution added, predictable component analysis is used to identify modes with the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Traditional MJO-phase analysis of total model heating (dominated by internally generated heating) shows that the MJO-related heating structure compares well with heating estimated from observed fast and slow episodes; however, the model heating is larger by a factor of two. The evolution of Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes indicates a clear response due to the added heating, with a robust increase in the frequency of occurrence of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO?) after the heating crosses into the Pacific and a somewhat less robust increase in the positive phase of the NAO (NAO+) following Indian Ocean heating. In the Fast Cycle experiments, the model response is somewhat muted compared with the Slow Cycle experiments. The Scandinavian Blocking regime becomes more frequent prior to the NAO? regime. The two leading modes in the predictable component analysis of 300?hPa height (Z300), synoptic scale feedback (DZ300), and planetary wave diabatic heating in all experiments form an oscillatory pair with high statistical significance. The oscillatory pair represents the cyclic response to the particular MJO signal (Fast or Slow, Single, or Repeated Cycles) in each case. The period is about 64 days for the Slow Cycle and 36 days for the Fast Cycle, consistent with the imposed periods. The time series of one of the leading modes of Z300 is highly anti-correlated with the frequency of occurrence of the NAO– in the Repeated Cycle experiments. A clear cycle involving the Z300 and DZ300 leading modes is identified.  相似文献   

Technology transfer by CDM projects     

Erik Haites  Maosheng Duan  Stephen Seres 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):327-344

Abstract

Technology development and transfer is an important feature of both the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol. Although the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) does not have an explicit technology transfer mandate, it may contribute to technology transfer by financing emission reduction projects using technologies currently not available in the host countries. This article analyses the claims about technology transfer made by CDM project participants in their project design documents. Roughly one-third of all CDM projects, accounting for almost two-thirds of the annual emission reductions, involve technology transfer. Technology transfer varies widely across project types and is more common for larger projects and projects with foreign participants. Equipment transfer is more common for larger projects, while smaller projects involve transfers of both equipment and knowledge or of knowledge alone. Technology transfer does not appear to be closely related to country size or per-capita GDP, but a host country can influence the extent of technology transfer involved in its CDM projects.  相似文献   

Erratum to “The formation of asteroid satellites in large impacts: results from numerical simulations”: [Icarus 167 (2004) 382-396]     

Daniel D. Durda  William F. Bottke Jr.  Brian L. Enke  William J. Merline  Erik Asphaug  Derek C. Richardson  Zoë M. Leinhardt 《Icarus》2004,170(1):242

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Large impact features on middle-sized icy satellites     

Jeffrey M. Moore  Paul M. Schenk  Erik Asphaug 《Icarus》2004,171(2):421-443

All of the large impact features of the middle-sized icy satellites of Saturn and Uranus that were clearly observed by the Voyager spacecraft are described. New image mosaics and stereo-and-photoclinometrically-derived digital elevation models are presented. Landforms related to large impact features, such as secondary craters and possible antipodal effects are examined and evaluated. Of the large impacts, Odysseus on Tethys appears to have had the most profound effect on its “target” satellite of any of the impact features we examined. Our modeling suggests that the Odysseus impact may have caused the prompt formation of Ithaca Chasma, a belt of tectonic troughs that roughly follow a great circle normal to the center of Odysseus, although other hypotheses remain viable. We identify probable secondary cratering from Tirawa on Rhea. We attribute a number of converging coalescing crater chains on Rhea to a putative, possibly relatively fresh, ∼350 km-diameter impact feature. We examine the antipodes of Odysseus, the putative ∼350 km-diameter Rhean impact feature, and Tirawa, and conclude that evidence from Voyager data for damage from seismic focusing is equivocal, although our modeling results indicate that such damage may have occurred. We propose a number of observations and tests for Cassini that offer the opportunity to differentiate among the various explanations and speculations reviewed and evaluated in this study.  相似文献   

Cartography     

Erik Arnberger 《GeoJournal》1982,6(3):199-200

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Barium anomaly in the Cambrian-Vendian aquifer system in North Estonia     

Andres?MarandiEmail author  Enn?Karro  Erik?Puura 《Environmental Geology》2004,47(1):132-139

A barium anomaly with a maximum Ba²⁺ concentration of 6.37 mg/l was distinguished in a Cambrian-Vendian (Cm-V) aquifer system that is widely used as a drinking water source in the towns Kunda, Rakvere and Kohtla-Järve of North-Estonia. The modelling results show that at low sulphate concentrations (below 3 mg/l) Ba²⁺ contents can exceed the limit values for drinking water (such as 2 mg/l set by US EPA). Bicarbonate ions in their common concentration range in groundwater cannot limit Ba²⁺ at its content below 10 mg/l. The probable natural sources of the anomaly are the crystalline basement and its weathering zone. Groundwater in the clayey weathering core is hydraulically connected with the overlying Cm-V aquifer system, thus the upconing of deeper-seated groundwater, caused by intensive exploitation of wells, is possible.  相似文献   

Low-speed impacts between rubble piles modeled as collections of polyhedra     

D.G. Korycansky  Erik Asphaug 《Icarus》2006,181(2):605-617

We present results of modeling rubble piles as collections of polyhedra. The use of polyhedra allows more realistic (irregular) shapes and interactions (e.g. collisions), particularly for objects of different sizes. Rotational degrees of freedom are included in the modeling, which may be important components of the motion. We solved the equations of rigid-body dynamics, including frictional/inelastic collisions, for collections of up to several hundred elements. As a demonstration of the methods and to compare with previous work by other researchers, we simulated low-speed collisions between km-scale bodies with the same general parameters as those simulated by Leinhardt et al. [Leinhardt, Z.M., Richardson, D.C., Quinn, T., 2000. Icarus 146, 133-151]. High-speed collisions appropriate to present-day asteroid encounters require additional treatment of shock effects and fragmentation and are the subject of future work; here we study regimes appropriate to planetesimal accretion and re-accretion in the aftermath of catastrophic events. Collisions between equal-mass objects at low speeds () were simulated for both head-on and off-center collisions between rubble piles made of a power-law mass spectrum of sub-elements. Very low-speed head-on collisions produce single objects from the coalescence of the impactors. For slightly higher speeds, extensive disruption occurs, but re-accretion produces a single object with most of the total mass. For increasingly higher speeds, the re-accreted object has smaller mass, finally resulting in complete catastrophic disruption with all sub-elements on escape trajectories and only small amounts of mass in re-accreted bodies. Off-center collisions at moderately low speeds produce two re-accreted objects of approximately equal mass, separating at greater than escape speed. At high speed, complete disruption occurs as with the high-speed head-on collisions. Head-on collisions at low to moderate speeds result in objects of mostly oblate shape, while higher speed collisions produce mostly prolate objects, as do off-center collisions at moderate and high speeds. Collisions carried out with the same dissipative coefficients (coefficient of restitution ?n=0.8, zero friction) as used by Leinhardt et al. [Leinhardt, Z.M., Richardson, D.C., Quinn, T., 2000. Icarus 146, 133-151] result in a value for specific energy for disruption , somewhat lower than the value of 2 J/kg found by them, while collisions with a lower coefficient of restitution and friction [?n=0.5, ?t=0, μ=0.5, similar to those used by Michel, et al. [Michel, P., Benz, W., Richardson, D.C., 2004. Planet. Space Sci. 52, 1109-1117] for SPH + N-body calculations] yield .  相似文献   

A paleolimnological record of rainfall and drought from East Java, Indonesia during the last 1,400?years     

Jessica R. Rodysill  James M. Russell  Satria Bijaksana  Erik T. Brown  La Ode Safiuddin  Hilde Eggermont 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,47(1):125-139

Variations in the location and strength of convection in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) have a profound impact on the distribution and amount of global rainfall. Much of the variability in WPWP convection is attributed to variations in the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation, for which the long-term trends and forcing mechanisms remain poorly understood. Despite the importance of WPWP convection to global climate change, we have very few paleohydrological reconstructions from the region. Here we present a new paleolimnologic and paleohydrologic record spanning the past 1,400 years using a multi-proxy dataset from Lake Logung, located in East Java, Indonesia that provides insights into centennial-scale trends in warm pool hydrology. Organic matter δ¹³C data indicate that East Java became wetter over the last millennium until ca. 1800 Common Era (CE), consistent with evidence for the southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during this time. Superimposed on this long-term trend are four decade- to century-scale droughts, inferred from organic matter δ¹³C and calcite abundance data. They are centered at 1030, 1550, 1830, and 1996 CE. The three more recent droughts correlate with hydrologic anomalies documented in other proxy records from the WPWP region on both sides of the equator, and the two most recent droughts correlate in time with historically documented periods of multiple, intense El Ni?o events. Thus, our record provides strong evidence that century-scale hydrologic variability in this region relates to changes in the Walker Circulation. Human activity within the lake catchment is apparent since 1860 CE.  相似文献   

Particle transport and distribution on the Mars Science Laboratory mission: Effects of triboelectric charging     

Robert C. Anderson  Gregory H. Peters  Louise Jandura  Kenneth Manatt  Erik Pounders  Dan Sunshine 《Icarus》2009,204(2):545-7971

We report on the nature of fine particle (<150 μm) transport under simulated martian conditions, in order to better understand the Mars Science Laboratory’s (MSL) sample acquisition, processing and handling subsystem (SA/SPaH). We find that triboelectric charging due to particle movement may have to be controlled in order for successful transport of fines that are created within the drill, processed through the Collection and Handling for In situ Martian Rock Analysis (CHIMRA) sample handing system, and delivered to the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) and Chemistry and Mineralogy (CheMin) instruments. These fines will be transferred from the surface material to the portioner, a 3 mm diameter, 8 mm deep distribution center where they will drop ∼2 cm to the instrument inlet funnels. In our experiments, movement of different material including terrestrial analogs and martian soil simulants (Mars Mojave Simulant - MMS) resulted in 1-7 nanocoulombs of charge to build up for several different experimental configurations. When this charging phenomenon occurs, several different results are observed including particle clumping, adherence of material on conductive surfaces, or electrostatic repulsion, which causes like-charged particles to move away from each other. This electrostatic repulsion can sort samples based upon differing size fractions, while adhesion causes particles of different sizes to bind into clods. Identifying these electrostatic effects can help us understand potential bias in the analytical instruments and to define the best operational protocols to collect samples on the surface of Mars.  相似文献